Curve decline of COVID-19: An analysis of first wave of disease in Pakistan– A cross-sectional study.

Abstract

Objective: The objective was to observe the COVID-19 rise and fall, disease pattern, clinical presentation, effective treatment and outcome in native population. Study Design: Cross Sectional study. Setting: Children’s Hospital Multan, Nishtar Hospital Multan, CMH Multan and Teaching Hospital of Kohat. Period: March 2020 to August 2020. Material & Methods: A total of 2,186 subjects with the suspicion of COVID-19 were enrolled in this study. Chi-square test was used to see the difference in disease distribution. Results: Of total, 779 patients were found positive for COVID-19, 47.11% were symptomatic. Of all positive subjects, no significant difference of disease spread was observed in young (<40 years) versus old age (>40 years) [X² = 3.14; P=0.076). There were more asymptomatic female carriers than male (X² = 11.68; P=0.001). The rise in cases was observed in May-June after maximum exposure on Eid festival then decline in July. Overall mortality rate was 3.98%. Conclusions: The mortality rate was higher in the start, then gradually declined (9.57-0) %. The disease prevalence was higher in male, and in the age group of 21-50 years. The mortality rate was higher in old age group (>40 years). Paracetamol and azithromycin proved to be effective in mild to moderate symptomatic patients.