ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS
PREDICTION IN PAKISTAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29309/TPMJ/2015.22.06.1235Keywords:
Curve fitting models, Forecasting, Pakistan, Traffic road accidentsAbstract
Objective: To determine the trend of road traffic accidents (RTAs) and forecasting
their incidence is an emerging to take safety measures so that general public health related
morbidity and mortality can be minimized. Setting: The data for present study has been taken
from Pakistan bureau of statistics (statistics House). Period: January 2002-2003 to December
2011-2012. Methods: A set of eleven curve fitting models namely linear, quadratic, cubic,
logarithmic, inverse, exponential growth model, logistics-curve ,and compound models were
carried out for prediction. Results: Under the descriptive analysis, the annual average number
of fatal and non-fatal accidents is 43.3% and 56.7% respectively. In provinces Punjab contributes
to a high rate of total number of accidents, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Baluchistan
placed second, third and fourth respectively. Under the curve fitting estimation, the cubic
model was selected for predicting the annual traffic road accident for all categories i.e.
(i) Total Number of Accident (ii) Fatal Accident (iii) Non-Fatal Accident (iv) Killed People
(v) Injured People and (vi) The Number of Vehicle Involved. Rising trend in all categories
are expected in Pakistan. Conclusions: The traffic road accident is expected to rise in Pakistan.
